Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6205
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6205 · PHX → TUS
departs 5:30 PM MT · arrives 6:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.