Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QK 786 · YYZ → DCA

departs 8:55 PM EDT · arrives 10:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 786 · YYZ → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?