Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2090
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2090 · LAX → STS
departs 6:41 PM PT · arrives 8:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at STS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
STS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.