Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2090
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2090 · LAX → STS
departs 6:40 PM PT · arrives 8:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
STS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.