Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2099 · MFR → SAN
departs 8:16 AM PT · arrives 10:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.