Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2099 · MFR → SAN
departs 8:14 AM PT · arrives 10:39 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.