Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2101 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QX 2101 · OAK → SAN

departs 5:03 PM PT · arrives 6:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2101 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?