Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2101
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2101 · OAK → SAN
departs 5:01 PM PT · arrives 6:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.