Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
QX 2128 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:36 PM PT · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MFR that day
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.