Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2128 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 8:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at MFR that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.