Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2132
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2132 · EUG → SAN
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at EUG that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from EUG are usually not late
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.