Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2278 · PAE → LAX
departs 12:20 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from PAE are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.