Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2278 · PAE → LAX
departs 12:19 PM PT · arrives 3:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from PAE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
QX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.