Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2423 · PDX → TUS
departs 6:56 AM PT · arrives 10:09 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 10%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from PDX are usually not late
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.