Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2423 · PDX → TUS
departs 6:55 AM PT · arrives 10:12 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from PDX are usually not late
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.