Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2491 · PAE → PDX
departs 12:39 PM PT · arrives 1:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from PAE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.