Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2491 · PAE → PDX
departs 12:38 PM PT · arrives 1:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PAE are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
QX's recent on-time record
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.