Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
TK 206 · DTW → IST
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.