Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
TK 206 · DTW → IST
departs 9:03 PM ET · arrives 2:10 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.