UA 1251 · STL → ORD

took off 7:10 PM CT · expected to land 8:01 PM CT (scheduled 6:47 PM CT → 8:15 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1251 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?