UA 1251 · STL → ORD

departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,286 ft Visibility9.57143 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1251 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?