UA 1807 · EWR → MIA

took off 8:13 PM ET · expected to land 10:34 PM ET (scheduled 8:10 PM ET → 11:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1807 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?