UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

took off 11:07 PM CT · expected to land 12:19 AM CT (scheduled 9:55 PM CT → 12:05 AM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

LIVE

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?