Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2386 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?