UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

took off 8:53 PM PT · expected to land 9:44 PM PT (scheduled 8:22 PM PT → 9:50 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2854 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?