Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

UA 775 · IAH → LGA

departs 2:44 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 775 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?