Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 775 · IAH → LGA

departs 2:42 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±9 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 775 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?