Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8127 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

UA 8127 · IAH → DCA

departs 6:13 PM CT · arrives 10:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8127 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?