WN 1256 · LGA → MSY

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1256 · LGA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?