Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1256
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1256 · LGA → MSY
departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.