Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 1494 · DCA → HOU
departs 1:06 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 36%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.