Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 159 · BNA → CLT
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.