Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 159 · CLT → BWI
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.