WN 1915 · PHX → BUF

departs 1:05 PM MT · arrives 8:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1915 · PHX → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?