Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1915 · PHX → BUF
departs 12:57 PM MT · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.