WN 202 · PHX → AUS

departs 1:03 PM MT · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 202 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?