Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 202 · PHX → AUS
departs 1:03 PM MT · arrives 5:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.