WN 2368 · SMF → LAX

took off 3:09 PM PT · landed 4:11 PM PT (scheduled 2:26 PM PT → 4:00 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,143 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2368 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?