WN 251 · SAN → MCI

departs 6:24 PM PT · arrives 11:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 251 · SAN → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?