Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 251 · SAN → MCI
departs 6:17 PM PT · arrives 11:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Mon 11/2 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.