Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 266 · BWI → DCA
departs 7:04 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.