WN 2815 · MCO → STL

took off 7:42 PM ET · landed 8:51 PM CT (scheduled 7:34 PM ET → 9:11 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2815 · MCO → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?