WN 3074 · TPA → SAN

departs 4:46 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3074 · TPA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?