Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3074 · TPA → SAN
departs 4:49 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.