Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 3158 · OAK → BUR
departs 6:24 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.