Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3158 · OAK → BUR
departs 6:23 PM PT · arrives 7:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.