Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 318 · MCO → CUN
departs 10:50 AM ET · arrives 11:54 AM EST
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 26%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
CUN (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.