WN 3578 · RNO → AUS

departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 3:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ RNO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3578 · RNO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?