Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3578 · RNO → AUS
departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 3:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
RNO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
10am departures from RNO are usually not late
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.