Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
WN 3894 · SMF → AUS
departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 8:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 4%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.